SCGP - 3Q preview
**3Q to soften YoY and QoQ
We expect 3Q core earnings of Bt1.3bn, down 11% YoY and 7% QoQ. 9M23 core NPAT should be Bt4.0bn, down 23% YoY. The weaker earnings reflect the price competition in Indonesia and maintenance shutdown of fibrous chain.

**Integrated packaging chain – weak packaging paper
Demand of packaging paper in the region remains mixed with stronger domestic demand in Thailand and Vietnam. However, the weak exports market to China resulted in excess supply in Ithe region, which led to price competition in Indonesia. However, the operations of downstream operations in Integrated packaging chain should continue to improve QoQ, mainly supported by stronger domestic demand especially from F&B. Thus, operations of integration packaging chain should be relatively flat QoQ.

**Fibrous chain – weaker price and maintenance shutdown
The low seasonality for pulp in 3Q led to the lower short-fibre pulp prices and dissolving pulp prices in 3Q. Together with the maintenance shutdown, we expect EBITDA of fibrous chain to soften slightly QoQ.

The lower coal and AoCC costs remain key positive factors. We expect earnings recovery in 4Q and 24E.