Phatra
PTTEP : It won the biddings of both Bongkot and Erawan. Key takeaways from the conference call
1. realized initial gas price is expected between US$4-5/mmbtu in 2022 (based on the pricing formula and Dubai price between US$60-70/bbl)
2. a profit split between the government and PTTEP (70% : 30%) which should result in the government take ratio of 80% (vs. expectation of 73%) and the contractor take of 20% for the entire project
3. an operational synergy of around 20-25% from winning both projects.
4. PTTEP confirmed that reserves life for both should last more than 10 years which is the minimum bidding requirement. Despite tougher fiscal regime, lower realized initial prices, higher profit split (to be offset by longer reserve life, cost savings, very limited initial investment), we believe Bongkot will add Bt10/share and Erawan willl add Bt7/share, boosting our DCF for PTTEP to Bt173/share. PTTEP has become Thailand/SE Asia Gas giant. Buy.
มาแล้วบทวิเคราะห์ PTTEP ของ PHATRA
PTTEP : It won the biddings of both Bongkot and Erawan. Key takeaways from the conference call
1. realized initial gas price is expected between US$4-5/mmbtu in 2022 (based on the pricing formula and Dubai price between US$60-70/bbl)
2. a profit split between the government and PTTEP (70% : 30%) which should result in the government take ratio of 80% (vs. expectation of 73%) and the contractor take of 20% for the entire project
3. an operational synergy of around 20-25% from winning both projects.
4. PTTEP confirmed that reserves life for both should last more than 10 years which is the minimum bidding requirement. Despite tougher fiscal regime, lower realized initial prices, higher profit split (to be offset by longer reserve life, cost savings, very limited initial investment), we believe Bongkot will add Bt10/share and Erawan willl add Bt7/share, boosting our DCF for PTTEP to Bt173/share. PTTEP has become Thailand/SE Asia Gas giant. Buy.