Chad Ford
Source :
http://insider.espn.go.com/nba/draft2015/insider/story/_/id/13107246/nba-draft-how-pros-do-ranking-prospects-tiers
Consensus is a word that should be used carefully when you talk about the NBA draft.
Occasionally a prospect emerges who is clearly better than anyone else in the draft (see Anthony Davis in 2012, John Wall in 2010, Blake Griffin in 2009, LeBron James in 2003, Yao Ming in 2002, Tim Duncan in 1997, Shaquille O'Neal in 1992), but more often, if you put 10 GMs into a room and ask them who the best player in the draft is, you'll get three or four answers.
The debates get louder and more diverse as you move further down the draft.
This year is no exception. With less than a week to go before the draft, the Minnesota Timberwolves are debating whom to take at No. 1 -- Karl-Anthony Towns, Jahlil Okafor or D'Angelo Russell. If the Wolves, who employ dozens of full-time pros who work at this all year, can't figure it out, how can we create a consensus ranking?
We want to believe that there's a Big Board in the sky that knows all. It doesn't exist. Reasonable minds can differ on prospects, and as much as we all love ranking players 1-100, it's not the best or most preferred way to do it.
This year, five players have a case to be picked No. 1 -- Towns, Okafor, Russell, Emmanuel Mudiay and Kristaps Porzingis.
Whom do you choose to draft? And how?
NBA teams watch prospects play thousands of hours of games. They go to practice and camps. Hire guys from MIT to create statistical solutions. Work out players, give them psychological tests, do background checks and conduct personal interviews. Yet still there is very little consensus.
When you factor in the debate between taking the best player available and which player a team needs most, the situation further muddies itself.
To make sense of all this, the past few years I've chronicled a draft ranking system called the tier system, which several teams employ.
By this method, teams group players into tiers based on overall talent, then rank the players in each tier based on team need. A more detailed explanation of how the system works can be found here.
So how do things break down? After I talked to several GMs and scouts whose teams employ this system, here is how the tiers look this year.
Players are listed alphabetically in each tier.
Tier 1
Karl-Anthony Towns, F/C, Kentucky
Ahead of last year's draft, we had three players in this category: Andrew Wiggins, Joel Embiid and Jabari Parker. This category usually is reserved for guys who are surefire All-Stars/franchise players. Just three other players since we started this column in 2009 -- Griffin, Wall and Davis -- have been ranked in this slot. You have to be elite to get here.
This year was one of the toughest yet. Five players were nominated for Tier 1 by various teams. However, only one player was consistently mentioned by all of them: Towns. Although some teams don't see major separation between him and the players in Tier 2, others feel that there's a gap and that he's the only one in the draft who has the potential to be a top-10 player in the league.
Tier 2
Emmanuel Mudiay, PG, Congo
Jahlil Okafor, C, Duke
Kristaps Porzingis, F/C, Latvia
D'Angelo Russell, G, Ohio State
This is a very strong Tier 2. Mudiay, Okafor, Porzingis and Russell all have a claim to be the No. 1 pick. In fact, Okafor was the favorite to be the No. 1 pick since July, and several teams put Russell on par with Towns. Both received votes for Tier 1 but not enough to move them up.
Tier 2 is reserved for players with All-Star potential. However, each player on the list has a weakness that some teams feel will keep him from being a superstar. For Mudiay, it's shooting. For Okafor and Russell, it's athleticism and defense. For Porzingis, it's a thin body and questionable position. Nevertheless, each of the four has a strength that should propel him to an All-Star Game in his career.
One fun note: Last year we wrote the column before Porzingis, then regarded as a Tier 4 prospect, had withdrawn from the draft. So he has jumped up two tiers.
Tier 3
Willie Cauley-Stein, F/C, Kentucky
Mario Hezonja, G/F, Croatia
Justise Winslow, G/F, Duke
This is a very strong Tier 3, as well. Hezonja and Winslow received Tier 2 votes from teams. However, both fell just short of the cut.
This tier usually is reserved for players who are projected as NBA starters in their careers. All three players should go in the top 10. Hezonja, especially, has some star appeal. Having eight players in the first three tiers makes for a very strong draft, but not quite as strong as the 2014 draft, which had 12 players in the first three tiers.
Tier 4
Devin Booker, SG, Kentucky
Sam Dekker, F, Wisconsin
Jerian Grant, G, Notre Dame
Stanley Johnson, G/F, Arizona
Frank Kaminsky, F/C, Wisconsin
Kevon Looney, F, UCLA
Trey Lyles, PF, Kentucky
Kelly Oubre, G/F, Kansas
Cameron Payne, PG, Murray State
Bobby Portis, PF, Arkanas
Myles Turner, F/C, Texas
Tier 4 typically is late-lottery to mid-first-round selections in a normal draft -- selections 10 through 20. This year, that tier is roughly 9-19 on our Big Board. Lots of talented players in this tier project to be starters or high-level rotation players.
Here, even the consensus in tiers starts to break down.
Guys really are all over the place. Booker, Kaminsky, Lyles and Turner each scored a few votes for Tier 3. Payne also picked up a Tier 3 vote. Still, the majority of teams had them ranked in Tier 4. Oubre, Grant and Looney had some Tier 5 votes, but most of their votes were in Tier 4.
Tier 5
Justin Anderson, SG, Virginia
Montrezl Harrell, PF, Louisville
Rondae Hollis-Jefferson, G/F, Arizona
R.J. Hunter, SG, Georgia State
Tyus Jones, PG, Duke
Terry Rozier, G, Louisville
Rashad Vaughn, SG, UNLV
Delon Wright, PG, Utah
This next group is one of the smaller Tier 5s we've had and shows the drop-off in talent as we get into the 20s. By pick 25 or so, teams really struggle to come up with players they think can make the league.
This area of the draft is typically reserved for rotation players: They're unlikely to start for good teams but could become solid role players off the bench. A few teams had Hollis-Jefferson, Hunter, Jones and Vaughn in Tier 4, but that's not quite enough for them to make the cut. Rozier, Harrell and Wright got a few Tier 6 votes.
Tier 6
Cliff Alexander, PF, Kansas
Anthony Brown, SG, Stanford
Rakeem Christmas, F/C, Syracuse
Olivier Hanlan, G, Boston College
Guillermo Hernangomez, C, Spain
Dakari Johnson, C, Kentucky
Jarell Martin, PF, LSU
Chris McCullough, F, Syracuse
Cedi Osman, F, Turkey
Robert Upshaw, C, Washington
Christian Wood, PF, UNLV
Joseph Young, G, Oregon
In this tier are the players one or more teams ranked in their top 30. A few -- Brown, Martin and McCullough -- got Tier 5 votes. The rest are likely second-round picks. This list is typically quite a bit longer. Again, the talent level of the draft drops off a cliff as we get into these lower tiers.
Like every draft system, the tier system isn't perfect. But most teams in the NBA run it, and they have found success with it. It has allowed them to get help through the draft without overreaching. Compared with traditional top-30 lists or mock drafts, it seems like a much more precise tool for gauging which players a team should draft.
Ranking NBA draft prospects by tiers
Source : http://insider.espn.go.com/nba/draft2015/insider/story/_/id/13107246/nba-draft-how-pros-do-ranking-prospects-tiers
Consensus is a word that should be used carefully when you talk about the NBA draft.
Occasionally a prospect emerges who is clearly better than anyone else in the draft (see Anthony Davis in 2012, John Wall in 2010, Blake Griffin in 2009, LeBron James in 2003, Yao Ming in 2002, Tim Duncan in 1997, Shaquille O'Neal in 1992), but more often, if you put 10 GMs into a room and ask them who the best player in the draft is, you'll get three or four answers.
The debates get louder and more diverse as you move further down the draft.
This year is no exception. With less than a week to go before the draft, the Minnesota Timberwolves are debating whom to take at No. 1 -- Karl-Anthony Towns, Jahlil Okafor or D'Angelo Russell. If the Wolves, who employ dozens of full-time pros who work at this all year, can't figure it out, how can we create a consensus ranking?
We want to believe that there's a Big Board in the sky that knows all. It doesn't exist. Reasonable minds can differ on prospects, and as much as we all love ranking players 1-100, it's not the best or most preferred way to do it.
This year, five players have a case to be picked No. 1 -- Towns, Okafor, Russell, Emmanuel Mudiay and Kristaps Porzingis.
Whom do you choose to draft? And how?
NBA teams watch prospects play thousands of hours of games. They go to practice and camps. Hire guys from MIT to create statistical solutions. Work out players, give them psychological tests, do background checks and conduct personal interviews. Yet still there is very little consensus.
When you factor in the debate between taking the best player available and which player a team needs most, the situation further muddies itself.
To make sense of all this, the past few years I've chronicled a draft ranking system called the tier system, which several teams employ.
By this method, teams group players into tiers based on overall talent, then rank the players in each tier based on team need. A more detailed explanation of how the system works can be found here.
So how do things break down? After I talked to several GMs and scouts whose teams employ this system, here is how the tiers look this year.
Players are listed alphabetically in each tier.
Tier 1
Karl-Anthony Towns, F/C, Kentucky
Ahead of last year's draft, we had three players in this category: Andrew Wiggins, Joel Embiid and Jabari Parker. This category usually is reserved for guys who are surefire All-Stars/franchise players. Just three other players since we started this column in 2009 -- Griffin, Wall and Davis -- have been ranked in this slot. You have to be elite to get here.
This year was one of the toughest yet. Five players were nominated for Tier 1 by various teams. However, only one player was consistently mentioned by all of them: Towns. Although some teams don't see major separation between him and the players in Tier 2, others feel that there's a gap and that he's the only one in the draft who has the potential to be a top-10 player in the league.
Tier 2
Emmanuel Mudiay, PG, Congo
Jahlil Okafor, C, Duke
Kristaps Porzingis, F/C, Latvia
D'Angelo Russell, G, Ohio State
This is a very strong Tier 2. Mudiay, Okafor, Porzingis and Russell all have a claim to be the No. 1 pick. In fact, Okafor was the favorite to be the No. 1 pick since July, and several teams put Russell on par with Towns. Both received votes for Tier 1 but not enough to move them up.
Tier 2 is reserved for players with All-Star potential. However, each player on the list has a weakness that some teams feel will keep him from being a superstar. For Mudiay, it's shooting. For Okafor and Russell, it's athleticism and defense. For Porzingis, it's a thin body and questionable position. Nevertheless, each of the four has a strength that should propel him to an All-Star Game in his career.
One fun note: Last year we wrote the column before Porzingis, then regarded as a Tier 4 prospect, had withdrawn from the draft. So he has jumped up two tiers.
Tier 3
Willie Cauley-Stein, F/C, Kentucky
Mario Hezonja, G/F, Croatia
Justise Winslow, G/F, Duke
This is a very strong Tier 3, as well. Hezonja and Winslow received Tier 2 votes from teams. However, both fell just short of the cut.
This tier usually is reserved for players who are projected as NBA starters in their careers. All three players should go in the top 10. Hezonja, especially, has some star appeal. Having eight players in the first three tiers makes for a very strong draft, but not quite as strong as the 2014 draft, which had 12 players in the first three tiers.
Tier 4
Devin Booker, SG, Kentucky
Sam Dekker, F, Wisconsin
Jerian Grant, G, Notre Dame
Stanley Johnson, G/F, Arizona
Frank Kaminsky, F/C, Wisconsin
Kevon Looney, F, UCLA
Trey Lyles, PF, Kentucky
Kelly Oubre, G/F, Kansas
Cameron Payne, PG, Murray State
Bobby Portis, PF, Arkanas
Myles Turner, F/C, Texas
Tier 4 typically is late-lottery to mid-first-round selections in a normal draft -- selections 10 through 20. This year, that tier is roughly 9-19 on our Big Board. Lots of talented players in this tier project to be starters or high-level rotation players.
Here, even the consensus in tiers starts to break down.
Guys really are all over the place. Booker, Kaminsky, Lyles and Turner each scored a few votes for Tier 3. Payne also picked up a Tier 3 vote. Still, the majority of teams had them ranked in Tier 4. Oubre, Grant and Looney had some Tier 5 votes, but most of their votes were in Tier 4.
Tier 5
Justin Anderson, SG, Virginia
Montrezl Harrell, PF, Louisville
Rondae Hollis-Jefferson, G/F, Arizona
R.J. Hunter, SG, Georgia State
Tyus Jones, PG, Duke
Terry Rozier, G, Louisville
Rashad Vaughn, SG, UNLV
Delon Wright, PG, Utah
This next group is one of the smaller Tier 5s we've had and shows the drop-off in talent as we get into the 20s. By pick 25 or so, teams really struggle to come up with players they think can make the league.
This area of the draft is typically reserved for rotation players: They're unlikely to start for good teams but could become solid role players off the bench. A few teams had Hollis-Jefferson, Hunter, Jones and Vaughn in Tier 4, but that's not quite enough for them to make the cut. Rozier, Harrell and Wright got a few Tier 6 votes.
Tier 6
Cliff Alexander, PF, Kansas
Anthony Brown, SG, Stanford
Rakeem Christmas, F/C, Syracuse
Olivier Hanlan, G, Boston College
Guillermo Hernangomez, C, Spain
Dakari Johnson, C, Kentucky
Jarell Martin, PF, LSU
Chris McCullough, F, Syracuse
Cedi Osman, F, Turkey
Robert Upshaw, C, Washington
Christian Wood, PF, UNLV
Joseph Young, G, Oregon
In this tier are the players one or more teams ranked in their top 30. A few -- Brown, Martin and McCullough -- got Tier 5 votes. The rest are likely second-round picks. This list is typically quite a bit longer. Again, the talent level of the draft drops off a cliff as we get into these lower tiers.
Like every draft system, the tier system isn't perfect. But most teams in the NBA run it, and they have found success with it. It has allowed them to get help through the draft without overreaching. Compared with traditional top-30 lists or mock drafts, it seems like a much more precise tool for gauging which players a team should draft.