October 6, 2014, 3:41 A.M. ET
Credit Suisse Ups Thailand, Downs India, Indonesia
By Shuli Ren
In their monthly global investment strategy report,
Credit Suisse changed their view on Thailand from Neutral to Buy, “driven by proactive stimulus measures and restored political stability,” and lowered India from Buy to Neutral and Indonesia from Neutral to Sell, both on valuation concerns.
In September, the iShares MSCI Thailand Capped ETF (THD) gained 0.4%, making it the best country ETF in Asia. In contrast, the WisdomTree India Earnings Fund (EPI) fell 3.5%. The iShares MSCI Indonesia ETF (EIDO) slumped 5.3%.
Foreigners were net buyers of Thai equities for the third month in a row, almost closing this year’s outflow.
To justify the coup,
Thailand’s militia government is keen to bring the economy back into full gear. It last week approved a $11 billion stimulus package to bring the economy back to 4-5% growth next year and help the economy grow by 2% this year. The package mounts to around 2.8% of the Thai GDP.
The government also approved billions of investment projects and decided to go ahead with a $1.9 billion expansion plan at Bangkok‘s main Suvarnabhumi airport.
Credit Suisse now expects a “strong cyclical rebound” in Thailand’s GDP growth from 1.2% this year to 4% next.
On India, Credit Suisse believes the Indian equity market is likely to take a breather, because the 12-month forward of P/E of 16.4 times, now above the 10-year historical average, “should have priced in the recovery outlook.”
As for Indonesia, the valuation has turned onerous. Indonesia’s 12-month forward P/E is now 14.4 times, a 16% premium to the 10-year historical average, while “3-month revisions of consensus earnings have turned negative and the outlook for the formation of a parliamentary coalition remains uncertain.”
Presidential elect Joko Widodo‘s opponent former army general Prabowo Subianto will have a majority in the Parliament and already proposed to eliminate direct elections for thousands of regional leaders across the country. The Economist last weekend had a good piece on how Subianto planned to use his majority in the legislature to effectively control the reform-minded Jokowi government.
The Thai SET Index fell 1.4% after its 86-year-old constitutional monarch underwent surgery to remove his gallbladder. King Bhumibol Adulyadej is seen as a political stabilizer there. The Indonesia Southeast Composite Index was up 0.3%. India is closed for a public holiday.
http://blogs.barrons.com/asiastocks/2014/10/06/credit-suisse-ups-thailand-downs-india-indonesia/ 
วันนี้ Credit Suisse ปรับคำแนะนำไทยจาก Neutral เป็น BUY
Credit Suisse Ups Thailand, Downs India, Indonesia
By Shuli Ren
In their monthly global investment strategy report, Credit Suisse changed their view on Thailand from Neutral to Buy, “driven by proactive stimulus measures and restored political stability,” and lowered India from Buy to Neutral and Indonesia from Neutral to Sell, both on valuation concerns.
In September, the iShares MSCI Thailand Capped ETF (THD) gained 0.4%, making it the best country ETF in Asia. In contrast, the WisdomTree India Earnings Fund (EPI) fell 3.5%. The iShares MSCI Indonesia ETF (EIDO) slumped 5.3%.
Foreigners were net buyers of Thai equities for the third month in a row, almost closing this year’s outflow.
To justify the coup, Thailand’s militia government is keen to bring the economy back into full gear. It last week approved a $11 billion stimulus package to bring the economy back to 4-5% growth next year and help the economy grow by 2% this year. The package mounts to around 2.8% of the Thai GDP. The government also approved billions of investment projects and decided to go ahead with a $1.9 billion expansion plan at Bangkok‘s main Suvarnabhumi airport. Credit Suisse now expects a “strong cyclical rebound” in Thailand’s GDP growth from 1.2% this year to 4% next.
On India, Credit Suisse believes the Indian equity market is likely to take a breather, because the 12-month forward of P/E of 16.4 times, now above the 10-year historical average, “should have priced in the recovery outlook.”
As for Indonesia, the valuation has turned onerous. Indonesia’s 12-month forward P/E is now 14.4 times, a 16% premium to the 10-year historical average, while “3-month revisions of consensus earnings have turned negative and the outlook for the formation of a parliamentary coalition remains uncertain.”
Presidential elect Joko Widodo‘s opponent former army general Prabowo Subianto will have a majority in the Parliament and already proposed to eliminate direct elections for thousands of regional leaders across the country. The Economist last weekend had a good piece on how Subianto planned to use his majority in the legislature to effectively control the reform-minded Jokowi government.
The Thai SET Index fell 1.4% after its 86-year-old constitutional monarch underwent surgery to remove his gallbladder. King Bhumibol Adulyadej is seen as a political stabilizer there. The Indonesia Southeast Composite Index was up 0.3%. India is closed for a public holiday.
http://blogs.barrons.com/asiastocks/2014/10/06/credit-suisse-ups-thailand-downs-india-indonesia/